Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Athletic Bilbao v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals
Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 1-0
Rayo Vallecano
İS1
0-0
HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
3-2
HT 3-1
Rayo Vallecano
İS1
0-1
HT 0-1
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics
Athletic Bilbao got the better of Rayo Vallecano 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 54% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 46%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.63 to 1.63.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.50 for Rayo Vallecano.
What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano?
Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 48%, draw 29%, Rayo Vallecano 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.