Deportivo Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 13 Apr 2025

Deportivo Alaves
0-1 HT 0-1
Real Madrid
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
47%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.91
Over
42%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 ✓
34%
3.41
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5
18%
3.36
6+
9%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.41 — our 34% vs market 23.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.69
1/2
6%
23.3
1/X
6%
16.05
X/1
9%
9.64
X/2
20%
4.27
X/X
10%
5.25
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.21
2/X
10%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
47%
Away Win
54%
-7.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo Alaves v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 58%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.09/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.14
-12% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 82%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
21.4 Crosses 16.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
0.95 xG 1.77
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
267 Passes 592
78% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 36
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-2 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
14.05.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-0 HT 3-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
21.12.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
19.02.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
14.08.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-4 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
23.01.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-4 HT 0-3 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Deportivo Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
0-1
AWAY Real Madrid
0.60 xG 0.91
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
448 Passes 345
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 20
30 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Alaves 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 56% of the ball to Real Madrid's 44%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.60 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 3.33 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid?

Deportivo Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 28%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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