Lazio 1-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 13 Apr 2025

Lazio
1-1 HT 0-0
Roma
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.82
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.69
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
29.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
10%
6.53
X/2
10%
5.39
X/X
10%
4.08
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
18%
3.46
2/X
9%
12.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.2pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.14/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.96
+7% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 83%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
17.5 Crosses 17.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Roma
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.76 xG 0.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
436 Passes 360
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
05.01.2025 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
06.04.2024 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
10.01.2024 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTK
12.11.2023 Lazio Lazio 0-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
19.03.2023 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
06.11.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
1-1
AWAY Roma
1.21 xG 0.24
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 5
283 Passes 339
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio and Roma couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Lazio had 47% of the ball to Roma's 53%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.21 to 0.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lazio and 0.50 for Roma.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Roma?

Lazio 1-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lazio 35%, draw 27%, Roma 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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