Heracles 1-0 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
12%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.24
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.2
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
13%
7.37
X/2
17%
4.96
X/X
14%
4.92
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
16%
2.83
2/X
5%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.2 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
28%
+5.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 49%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.41/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.24
+17% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
23.6 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.90
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
296 Passes 498
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 44
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.02.2025 Heracles Heracles 2-2 HT 1-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
01.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
03.04.2024 Heracles Heracles 5-0 HT 3-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
28.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
19.02.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
15.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-1 HT 2-1 Heracles Heracles HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
1-0
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.02 xG 0.56
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
328 Passes 323
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Heracles edged past AZ Alkmaar 1-0 in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 13 Apr 2025. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Heracles had 51% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 49%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 1.02 to 0.56.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar lead the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Heracles and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?

Heracles 1-0 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Heracles 34%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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