Mbarara City 1-3 SC Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 13 May 2026

📅13/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
42%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.51
Over 2.5
31%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
19%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+7.8pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.8pp
42%
Away Win
53%
-10.6pp
69%
Under 2.5
62%
+6.1pp
31%
Over 2.5
38%
-6.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.4pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY SC Villa EU Bookmakers 56%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.70/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.38
-13% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +98%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
248 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mbarara City
1W-0D-4L
AWAY SC Villa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.80
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.01.2026 SC Villa SC Villa 6-1 HT 4-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
16.04.2025 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-2 HT 0-0 SC Villa SC Villa UGA
16.09.2024 SC Villa SC Villa 4-2 HT 2-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
30.03.2024 SC Villa SC Villa 2-1 HT 1-1 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
30.11.2021 Mbarara City Mbarara City 1-0 HT 1-0 SC Villa SC Villa UGA
POST-MATCH Mbarara City vs SC Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SC Villa saw off Mbarara City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had SC Villa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, SC Villa led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mbarara City and 2.80 for SC Villa.

What was the final score of Mbarara City vs SC Villa?

Mbarara City 1-3 SC Villa in the Uganda - Premier League on 13/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mbarara City vs SC Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an SC Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 27%, draw 31%, SC Villa 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SC Villa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SC Villa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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