UPDF 1-2 Kampala City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 13 May 2026

📅13/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.71
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
54%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
6%
X/2
22%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
18%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
54%
Away Win
57%
-2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Kampala City EU Bookmakers 61%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +8%
0.26/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.77
-70% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
243 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Kampala City
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2026 Kampala City Kampala City 4-0 HT 2-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
13.03.2025 UPDF UPDF 1-2 HT 0-1 Kampala City Kampala City UGA
19.10.2024 Kampala City Kampala City 0-0 HT 0-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
07.05.2024 Kampala City Kampala City 1-0 HT 1-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
05.04.2022 UPDF UPDF 0-3 HT 0-1 Kampala City Kampala City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
1-2
AWAY Kampala City
37% Ball Possession 63%
5 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Kampala City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kampala City squeezed past UPDF 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kampala City as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, UPDF had 37% of the ball to Kampala City's 63%, shots finished 5-15.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Kampala City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for UPDF and 2.00 for Kampala City.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Kampala City?

UPDF 1-2 Kampala City in the Uganda - Premier League on 13/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Kampala City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kampala City win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split UPDF 20%, draw 26%, Kampala City 54%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kampala City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kampala City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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13 May 2026
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