Sao Paulo 1-3 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 Jun 2025

📅13/06/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.48
Over 2.5
36%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.29
No
60%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
17%
6.11
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
21%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.8pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.8pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.26/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.43
-12% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 77%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
21.5 Crosses 20.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.60 xG 0.91
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
435 Passes 311
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.10.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
23.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 4-1 HT 2-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
08.10.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
21.05.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 4-2 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
05.08.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
29.07.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-3
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.38 xG 1.81
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 3
401 Passes 387
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama beat Sao Paulo 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 51% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 49%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.38 to 1.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

Sao Paulo 1-3 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 43%, draw 32%, Vasco da Gama 24%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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