Toronto FC 1-1 Atlanta United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 13 Jul 2025

📅13/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.82
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.0
6+ Goals
12%
9.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.42
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
21%
5.68
X/2
11%
6.29
X/X
8%
5.11
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
20%
4.01
2/X
10%
12.7
Value flag · X/1 at 5.68 — our 21% vs market 13.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+4.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
1.24/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.55
-20% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
15.6 Crosses 15.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atlanta United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.55 xG 1.53
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
334 Passes 417
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-1 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
24.03.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
16.04.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
05.03.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-1 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
11.09.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-2 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
26.06.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-1
AWAY Atlanta United
0.72 xG 1.32
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
249 Passes 474
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Atlanta United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC and Atlanta United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Toronto FC had 37% of the ball to Atlanta United's 63%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.72 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Toronto FC and 1.67 for Atlanta United.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Atlanta United?

Toronto FC 1-1 Atlanta United in the USA - Major League on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Atlanta United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 37%, draw 25%, Atlanta United 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atlanta United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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