Atlanta United 2-1 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 30 Jun 2024

Atlanta United
2-1 HT 1-0
Toronto FC
📅30/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Atlanta United vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.96
4-5 Goals
23%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.24
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
16%
4.39
X/2
9%
8.92
X/X
9%
6.1
2/1
7%
20.3
2/2
11%
5.9
2/X
8%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.1pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v Toronto FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 27%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
2.00/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.99
+27% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
18.3 Crosses 11.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Atlanta United vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Toronto FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.60 xG 1.51
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
432 Passes 319
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.03.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
16.04.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
05.03.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-1 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
11.09.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-2 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
26.06.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
31.10.2021 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-1 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD

Atlanta United 2-1 Toronto FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
2-1
AWAY Toronto FC
1.35 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
431 Passes 433
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United nicked a narrow win over Toronto FC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atlanta United as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atlanta United had 50% of the ball to Toronto FC's 50%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.35 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toronto FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atlanta United and 1.67 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?

Atlanta United 2-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 50%, draw 24%, Toronto FC 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlanta United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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