CF Montreal 4-2 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 30 Jun 2024

CF Montreal
4-2 HT 1-2
Philadelphia Union
📅30/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.57 — our 27% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.32
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
7%
5.58
X/2
13%
6.05
X/X
11%
5.36
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
17%
3.7
2/X
7%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+0.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.7pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CF Montreal v Philadelphia Union — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 39%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.46/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.29
+14% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 81%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.8 Crosses 17.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Montreal
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.95 xG 1.30
55% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
373 Passes 281
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.06.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-2 HT 0-1 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
04.06.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-0 HT 2-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
19.03.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 3-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
23.04.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
06.03.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
16.10.2021 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD

CF Montreal 4-2 Philadelphia Union — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Montreal
4-2
AWAY Philadelphia Union
2.07 xG 0.95
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
582 Passes 286
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Montreal saw off Philadelphia Union 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; CF Montreal found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, CF Montreal had 64% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 36%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.07 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for CF Montreal and 2.00 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union?

CF Montreal 4-2 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a CF Montreal win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split CF Montreal 39%, draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 36%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CF Montreal), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CF Montreal) ✓ Over 2.5
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