CA Sarmiento 2-2 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 13 Jul 2025

📅13/07/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
39%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.54
Over 2.5
34%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.09
No
62%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
42%
2.28
2-3 Goals
34%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
4.86
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.28 — our 42% vs market 36.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.15
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
9%
15.8
X/1
14%
8.19
X/2
16%
4.35
X/X
17%
3.84
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
14%
2.7
2/X
6%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+5.8pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.3pp
39%
Away Win
48%
-9.2pp
66%
Under 2.5
61%
+4.9pp
34%
Over 2.5
39%
-4.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.4pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 52%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.06/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/0.92
-10% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +4%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
236 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
20.3 Crosses 21.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Independiente
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.69 xG 1.53
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
200 Passes 380
66% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.01.2025 Independiente Independiente 2-1 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
01.11.2024 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
10.06.2023 Independiente Independiente 2-0 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
12.09.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
22.10.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 1-1 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
16.03.2021 Independiente Independiente 6-0 HT 4-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
2-2
AWAY Independiente
0.72 xG 1.09
28% Ball Possession 72%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
114 Passes 412
64% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Sarmiento and Independiente shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 32% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CA Sarmiento had 28% of the ball to Independiente's 72%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.72 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for CA Sarmiento and 2.17 for Independiente.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs Independiente?

CA Sarmiento 2-2 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 29%, draw 32%, Independiente 39%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ARJ More Argentina - Premier League
13 Jul 2025
00:30 Huracan vs Belgrano Cordoba Analysis →
00:30 Gimnasia La Plata vs Instituto Cordoba Analysis →
02:45 Racing Club vs Barracas Central Analysis →
22:30 Atletico Tucuman vs San Martin San Juan Analysis →
22:30 Independiente Rivadavia vs Newells Old Boys Analysis →