Barrow 3-2 Port Vale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 13 Aug 2024

📅13/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.46
6+ Goals
12%
13.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.46 — our 24% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.48
X/2
11%
7.07
X/X
12%
4.9
2/1
10%
24.45
2/2
13%
5.17
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barrow EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Vale EU Bookmakers 31%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
0.93/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/0.54
-29% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
319 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 68%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.0
17.0 Crosses 24.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barrow
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Port Vale
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.67 xG 1.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
226 Passes 254
64% Pass Accuracy 66%
16 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2022 Barrow Barrow 1-2 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
16.10.2021 Port Vale Port Vale 3-1 HT 0-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
20.04.2021 Barrow Barrow 0-2 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
26.12.2020 Port Vale Port Vale 0-2 HT 0-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barrow
3-2
AWAY Port Vale
1.37 xG 0.58
43% Ball Possession 57%
20 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 4
284 Passes 424
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 9
35 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barrow vs Port Vale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow squeezed past Port Vale 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Barrow found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Barrow had 43% of the ball to Port Vale's 57%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.37 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Port Vale led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Barrow and 1.75 for Port Vale.

What was the final score of Barrow vs Port Vale?

Barrow 3-2 Port Vale in the England - League Cup on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barrow vs Port Vale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barrow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Barrow 40%, draw 30%, Port Vale 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barrow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barrow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNLK More England - League Cup
13 Aug 2024
21:30 Carlisle United vs Stoke City Analysis →
21:30 Stockport County vs Blackburn Rovers Analysis →
21:30 Leyton Orient vs Newport County Analysis →
21:45 Crawley Town vs Swindon Town Analysis →
21:45 Bolton Wanderers vs Mansfield Town Analysis →
21:45 Norwich City vs Stevenage Analysis →