De Graafschap 2-3 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.66
No
57%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.46 — our 28% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.06
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
16%
4.02
X/2
10%
9.99
X/X
11%
6.03
2/1
7%
20.8
2/2
11%
7.16
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.5pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.0pp
57%
BTTS No
44%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.79/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.40
+1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
408 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
24.9 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.36 xG 0.64
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
382 Passes 269
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
18.09.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
06.03.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
18.11.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-2 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
22.04.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-4 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
10.12.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-3
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.30 xG 1.16
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
380 Passes 289
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport squeezed past De Graafschap 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 56% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 44%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.30 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for De Graafschap and 0.83 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?

De Graafschap 2-3 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 51%, draw 24%, Helmond Sport 25%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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