VVV-Venlo 3-2 Utrecht II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.4
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.55
X/1
14%
4.11
X/2
13%
8.16
X/X
11%
5.08
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
9%
6.22
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -21%
1.47/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.37
-5% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
26.4 Crosses 17.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Utrecht II
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.31 xG 1.03
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
349 Passes 351
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.01.2024 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-0 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
25.08.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 4-1 HT 2-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
19.05.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
02.09.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
06.05.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-3 HT 1-2 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
10.12.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
3-2
AWAY Utrecht II
1.57 xG 0.00
14 Total Shots
8 Shots on Target
6 Corners 6
247 Passes
74% Pass Accuracy
18 Box Touches 0
19 Crosses 0
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Utrecht II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo squeezed past Utrecht II 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had VVV-Venlo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, shots finished 14-–, expected goals 1.57 to 0.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold VVV-Venlo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.17 for Utrecht II.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Utrecht II?

VVV-Venlo 3-2 Utrecht II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Utrecht II?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 46%, draw 26%, Utrecht II 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VVV-Venlo), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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