Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 13 Sep 2025

Atletico Madrid
2-0 HT 1-0
Villarreal
📅13/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.37
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.28
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
16%
4.32
X/2
11%
8.82
X/X
13%
5.01
2/1
12%
22.8
2/2
7%
6.86
2/X
6%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 25%
+7% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +25%
1.87/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.42
+29% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
17.4 Crosses 13.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Villarreal
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.91 xG 1.34
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
432 Passes 450
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
29 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.01.2025 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
19.08.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 2-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
01.04.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
12.11.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
04.06.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.08.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1

Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
2-0
AWAY Villarreal
1.01 xG 1.03
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
559 Passes 340
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid saw off Villarreal 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 61% of the ball to Villarreal's 39%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 1.01 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.50 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?

Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 51%, draw 25%, Villarreal 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5
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