Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo Alaves — Team-Based Signals
Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Deportivo Alaves — Actual Match Statistics
Deportivo Alaves edged past Athletic Bilbao 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
This one beat our numbers. Athletic Bilbao carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 58% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 42%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 1.08 to 0.10 — on chances, Athletic Bilbao could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.33 for Deportivo Alaves.
What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?
Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?
Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 61%, draw 24%, Deportivo Alaves 15%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) went the other way.