Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 22 Jul 2025

📅22/07/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
40%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 31% vs market 24.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.5pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.4pp
40%
Away Win
52%
-11.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 56%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
0.71/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.75
-43% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +64%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
268 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.83 xG 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
250 Passes 402
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
15.12.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
16.03.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
16.01.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İSPK
22.09.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
09.01.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1-0
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves nicked a narrow win over Athletic Bilbao 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (30% / 31% / 40%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Alaves found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 44% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 56%, shots finished 10-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.33 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao?

Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Athletic Bilbao in the Friendlies on 22/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 30%, draw 31%, Athletic Bilbao 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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