VPS 2-1 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 13 Sep 2025

VPS
2-1 HT 2-0
KTP Kotka
📅13/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2025

VPS vs KTP Kotka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.19
2-3 Goals
45%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.72
6+ Goals
9%
6.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.34
1/2
4%
32.0
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
15%
4.7
X/2
7%
8.24
X/X
6%
6.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.5
2/2
15%
5.5
2/X
7%
13.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.5 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
-0.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.8pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VPS v KTP Kotka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.70/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.60
+0% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
362 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
25.0 Crosses 17.6
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.9

VPS vs KTP Kotka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
2W-1D-3L
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.60 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
270 Passes 238
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
22.08.2025 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 1-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
11.04.2025 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-2 HT 1-1 VPS VPS FİN
25.08.2023 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
03.06.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
04.11.2020 VPS VPS 2-4 HT 2-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
15.08.2020 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-0 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN2

VPS 2-1 KTP Kotka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
2-1
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.39 xG 1.35
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
211 Passes 268
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 40
16 Crosses 37
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH VPS vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS nicked a narrow win over KTP Kotka 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had VPS as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, VPS had 43% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 57%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.39 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for VPS and 2.00 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of VPS vs KTP Kotka?

VPS 2-1 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split VPS 51%, draw 23%, KTP Kotka 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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