Atyrau 1-0 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 13 Sep 2025

Atyrau
1-0 HT 1-0
Tobol
📅13/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
48%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
48%
Away Win
48%
-0.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.7pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atyrau EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 52%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
0.77/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.95
-10% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -25%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
269 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atyrau
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Tobol
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
30.05.2025 Tobol Tobol 5-0 HT 3-0 Atyrau Atyrau KAZP
31.08.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-1 HT 0-1 Atyrau Atyrau KAZP
23.06.2024 Atyrau Atyrau 0-0 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
19.06.2024 Atyrau Atyrau 4-0 HT 2-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
29.05.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 1-0 Atyrau Atyrau KAZKK
08.07.2023 Atyrau Atyrau 0-1 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
POST-MATCH Atyrau vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atyrau nicked a narrow win over Tobol 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tobol at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atyrau and 1.33 for Tobol.

What was the final score of Atyrau vs Tobol?

Atyrau 1-0 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atyrau vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Atyrau 26%, draw 26%, Tobol 48%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Tobol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tobol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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