Hartford Athletic 4-3 North Carolina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 13 Oct 2024

📅13/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
33%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.97
Over 2.5
41%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 32% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-8.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
47%
+11.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
53%
-11.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.8pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY North Carolina EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.55/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.20
-24% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
17.8 Crosses 16.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartford Athletic
0W-1D-2L
AWAY North Carolina
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.00 xG 1.76
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
309 Passes 370
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 2-1 HT 2-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
02.06.2019 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 1-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
28.04.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 4-1 HT 2-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartford Athletic
4-3
AWAY North Carolina
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
POST-MATCH Hartford Athletic vs North Carolina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartford Athletic nicked a narrow win over North Carolina 4-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Hartford Athletic found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hartford Athletic had 42% of the ball to North Carolina's 58%, shots finished 8-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, North Carolina led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hartford Athletic and 2.33 for North Carolina.

What was the final score of Hartford Athletic vs North Carolina?

Hartford Athletic 4-3 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartford Athletic vs North Carolina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartford Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hartford Athletic 39%, draw 28%, North Carolina 33%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hartford Athletic) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hartford Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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