Ukrayna vs Azerbaycan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ukrayna v Azerbaycan — Team-Based Signals
Ukrayna vs Azerbaycan Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
6-0
HT 4-0
Azerbaycan
HAZ
Ukrayna 2-1 Azerbaycan — Actual Match Statistics
Ukrayna nicked a narrow win over Azerbaycan 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ukrayna as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Ukrayna had 57% of the ball to Azerbaycan's 43%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 2.72 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ukrayna's control.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ukrayna had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Ukrayna and 0.50 for Azerbaycan.
What was the final score of Ukrayna vs Azerbaycan?
Ukrayna 2-1 Azerbaycan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 13/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ukrayna vs Azerbaycan?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ukrayna win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Ukrayna 78%, draw 16%, Azerbaycan 6%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ukrayna), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.