Hartberg 2-1 Swarovski Tirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 13 Dec 2025

📅13/12/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
33%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.67
6+ Goals
12%
15.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.67 — our 27% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.05
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
29.0
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
15%
5.89
X/2
12%
5.53
X/X
11%
4.56
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
14%
3.67
2/X
8%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-1.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartberg EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
1.50/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.58
-16% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
273 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 73%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
17.9 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartberg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.22 xG 1.14
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
349 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.08.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 4-2 HT 2-2 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
17.05.2025 Hartberg Hartberg 3-2 HT 0-1 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
05.04.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-3 HT 0-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
09.02.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
26.09.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
03.03.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-0 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartberg
2-1
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
1.33 xG 0.51
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
426 Passes 263
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hartberg vs Swarovski Tirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartberg nicked a narrow win over Swarovski Tirol 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Hartberg found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hartberg had 60% of the ball to Swarovski Tirol's 40%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.33 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hartberg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hartberg and 1.33 for Swarovski Tirol.

What was the final score of Hartberg vs Swarovski Tirol?

Hartberg 2-1 Swarovski Tirol in the Austria - Bundesliga on 13/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartberg vs Swarovski Tirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartberg win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Hartberg 36%, draw 29%, Swarovski Tirol 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/29/36) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVU More Austria - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025
19:00 Grazer AK vs LASK Linz Analysis →
19:00 Ried vs Rheindorf Altach Analysis →