Lucchese 1-3 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.27
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
12.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+1.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 22%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.21/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.74
-25% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sestri Levante
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.09.2023 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 0-1 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
1-3
AWAY Sestri Levante
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
15 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sestri Levante got the better of Lucchese 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lucchese at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lucchese had 67% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 33%, shots finished 17-10.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs Sestri Levante?

Lucchese 1-3 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 54%, draw 26%, Sestri Levante 21%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lucchese) ✗ Under 2.5
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