Hoffenheim 5-1 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Jan 2026

📅14/01/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.44
2-3 Goals
37%
1.89
4-5 Goals
28%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
8.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.58
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
15%
4.92
X/2
11%
7.92
X/X
12%
5.69
2/1
9%
21.5
2/2
11%
5.37
2/X
5%
13.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 32.5 — our 9% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.6pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 30%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.64/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.95
-15% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
382 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
22.6 Crosses 14.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.86 xG 1.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
428 Passes 369
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 4-4 HT 2-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
21.12.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-2 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
20.04.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-3 HT 1-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
02.12.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-1 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
28.01.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-4 HT 0-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
06.08.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 3-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
5-1
AWAY Mönchengladbach
3.42 xG 0.92
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
554 Passes 250
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
38 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim cruised past Mönchengladbach 5-1. Half-time: 4-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hoffenheim as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 66% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 34%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 3.42 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hoffenheim and 3.00 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach?

Hoffenheim 5-1 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 46%, draw 22%, Mönchengladbach 32%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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