Köln 1-3 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Jan 2026

Köln
1-3 HT 1-1
Bayern Münih
📅14/01/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Köln vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
7.18
Draw
13%
5.28
Away
74%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
3.94
Over 2.5
69%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
9.51
2-3 Goals
36%
2.53
4-5 Goals
32%
2.31
6+ Goals
15%
3.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
14.6
1/2
8%
16.9
1/X
3%
23.1
X/1
4%
20.35
X/2 EV+ ✓
25%
4.34
X/X
7%
11.15
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
42%
1.43
2/X
3%
19.95
Value flag · X/2 at 4.34 — our 25% vs market 18.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
11%
+1.6pp
13%
Draw
16%
-2.6pp
74%
Away Win
73%
+1.0pp
31%
Under 2.5
22%
+9.5pp
69%
Over 2.5
78%
-9.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.7pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 78%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +6%
0.99/2.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.48/0.95
-27% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -12%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
268 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 473 · 83%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.5
17.0 Crosses 19.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Köln vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.96 xG 2.68
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
269 Passes 553
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 40
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
29.10.2025 Köln Köln 1-4 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
13.04.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
24.11.2023 Köln Köln 0-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
27.05.2023 Köln Köln 1-2 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
24.01.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL1
15.01.2022 Köln Köln 0-4 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1

Köln 1-3 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
1-3
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.70 xG 1.50
28% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
174 Passes 604
70% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 43
19 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Köln vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih saw off Köln 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Köln had 28% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 72%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.70 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Köln and 2.33 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Köln vs Bayern Münih?

Köln 1-3 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Köln 12%, draw 13%, Bayern Münih 74%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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