RB Leipzig 2-0 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Jan 2026

📅14/01/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.72
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
18%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.15
Over 2.5
63%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
2.97
6+ Goals
15%
8.99
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
2.21
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
15%
4.52
X/2
5%
9.64
X/X
9%
5.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.55
2/2
8%
7.13
2/X
6%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.55 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
54%
+6.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.3pp
18%
Away Win
22%
-3.1pp
37%
Under 2.5
43%
-6.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
57%
+6.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.5pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 25%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.08/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.68
+37% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
421 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
17.5 Crosses 15.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Freiburg
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.03 xG 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
397 Passes 348
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
08.03.2025 Freiburg Freiburg 0-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
26.10.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
06.04.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-4 HT 0-3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
12.11.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
06.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 0-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
02.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-5 HT 0-4 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-0
AWAY Freiburg
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
487 Passes 237
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig got the better of Freiburg 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 64% of the ball to Freiburg's 36%, shots finished 21-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Freiburg?

RB Leipzig 2-0 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 61%, draw 21%, Freiburg 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026
20:30 Wolfsburg vs St. Pauli Analysis →
22:30 Köln vs Bayern Münih Analysis →
22:30 Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →