Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
Melbourne Victory 1-0 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne Victory nicked a narrow win over Wellington Phoenix 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Melbourne Victory had 57% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 43%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.47 to 0.50.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Melbourne Victory and 0.83 for Wellington Phoenix.
What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne Victory 1-0 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 14/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 55%, draw 22%, Wellington Phoenix 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.