Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.78
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.31
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.39
1/2
5%
27.5
1/X
8%
15.2
X/1 EV+ ✓
16%
7.86
X/2
16%
4.17
X/X
10%
4.32
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.64
2/X
4%
14.55
Value flag · X/1 at 7.86 — our 16% vs market 9.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
25%
+8.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.2pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 53%
+16% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.59/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.51
+8% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.2
16.1 Crosses 16.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 1.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
480 Passes 423
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-2 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
12.05.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
12.04.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
19.01.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
10.11.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
01.04.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1-0
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.68 xG 1.76
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 7
348 Passes 484
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 42
5 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix nicked a narrow win over Melbourne Victory 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 43% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 57%, shots finished 6-18, expected goals 0.68 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Melbourne Victory.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.00 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 33%, draw 23%, Melbourne Victory 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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