Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics
Wellington Phoenix nicked a narrow win over Melbourne Victory 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 46% for over 2.5, 49% on both teams scoring.
On the day, Melbourne Victory saw more of the ball, 57% to 43%, shots finished 6-18, expected goals 0.68 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Melbourne Victory.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.83 a game for Wellington Phoenix against 1.00 for Melbourne Victory.
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Result & Final Score
Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 24%, draw 26%, Melbourne Victory 50%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory) went the other way.