Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
1-2
HT 1-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics
Wellington Phoenix nicked a narrow win over Melbourne Victory 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 43% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 57%, shots finished 6-18, expected goals 0.68 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Melbourne Victory.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.00 for Melbourne Victory.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 33%, draw 23%, Melbourne Victory 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory) went the other way.