Troyes 0-1 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 14 Feb 2025

📅14/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
24%
2.94
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.96
No
62%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.46
2-3 Goals
45%
1.74
4-5 Goals
14%
4.5
6+ Goals
6%
24.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.46 — our 35% vs market 33.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
18%
6.19
1/2
4%
30.0
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
8%
7.62
X/2
13%
4.67
X/X
13%
3.78
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.86
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 1/1 at 6.19 — our 18% vs market 12.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.9pp
25%
Draw
30%
-5.6pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.4pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Troyes EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient EU Bookmakers 49%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.37/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.00
+53% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
291 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
14.3 Crosses 19.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Troyes
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lorient
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.67 xG 1.06
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
342 Passes 455
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.12.2024 Lorient Lorient 2-0 HT 1-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
12.03.2023 Lorient Lorient 2-0 HT 1-0 Troyes Troyes FR1
23.10.2022 Troyes Troyes 2-2 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
21.05.2022 Lorient Lorient 1-1 HT 0-1 Troyes Troyes FR1
01.12.2021 Troyes Troyes 2-0 HT 2-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
26.10.2019 Lorient Lorient 0-1 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Troyes
0-1
AWAY Lorient
1.40 xG 1.17
33% Ball Possession 67%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
231 Passes 565
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
37 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Troyes vs Lorient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient edged past Troyes 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lorient as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Troyes had 33% of the ball to Lorient's 67%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.40 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Troyes and 1.17 for Lorient.

What was the final score of Troyes vs Lorient?

Troyes 0-1 Lorient in the France - Ligue 2 on 14/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Troyes vs Lorient?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lorient win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Troyes 31%, draw 25%, Lorient 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lorient), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lorient) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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