Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa v Newcastle — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
3-3
HT 2-2
Aston Villa
HAZPL
Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle — Actual Match Statistics
Newcastle saw off Aston Villa 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 35%) promised a tight game; Newcastle found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Aston Villa had 43% of the ball to Newcastle's 57%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.77 to 1.21.
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle in the England - FA Cup on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 40%, draw 24%, Newcastle 35%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa) went the other way.