Southampton 1-1 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
4.11
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.48
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
17%
4.76
X/2
11%
8.36
X/X
11%
5.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.8
2/2
10%
5.92
2/X
7%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 29%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.17/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/0.71
-36% / +64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
17.3 Crosses 11.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Leicester City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.38 xG 1.73
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
444 Passes 352
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
10.02.2026 Leicester City Leicester City 3-4 HT 3-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
25.11.2025 Southampton Southampton 3-0 HT 3-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNCL
03.05.2025 Leicester City Leicester City 2-0 HT 2-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
19.10.2024 Southampton Southampton 2-3 HT 2-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
23.04.2024 Leicester City Leicester City 5-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
15.09.2023 Southampton Southampton 1-4 HT 1-3 Leicester City Leicester City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
1-1
AWAY Leicester City
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
431 Passes 540
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southampton and Leicester City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Southampton at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Southampton had 45% of the ball to Leicester City's 55%, shots finished 13-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leicester City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Southampton and 2.83 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Leicester City?

Southampton 1-1 Leicester City in the England - FA Cup on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Southampton 47%, draw 26%, Leicester City 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Southampton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ BTTS Yes
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