Burnley 1-2 Mansfield Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.45
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.8
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
13%
10.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 26% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.76
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.5
X/1
19%
3.92
X/2
5%
13.6
X/X
6%
6.34
2/1
9%
22.25
2/2
12%
11.5
2/X
8%
20.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Burnley win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-6.9pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.6pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.7pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
3.24/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.34/2.16
+47% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +110% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 71%
35.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.5 Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
1-2
AWAY Mansfield Town
3.64 xG 0.89
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
461 Passes 212
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
50 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Mansfield Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mansfield Town edged past Burnley 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Burnley carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Burnley had 64% of the ball to Mansfield Town's 36%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 3.64 to 0.89 — on chances, Burnley could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Mansfield Town?

Burnley 1-2 Mansfield Town in the England - FA Cup on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Mansfield Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Burnley 58%, draw 20%, Mansfield Town 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Burnley) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burnley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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