Lille 1-1 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Feb 2026

Lille
1-1 HT 0-0
Brest
📅14/02/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
55%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.9
Over
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.3
2-3
38%
1.79
4-5
23%
3.46
6+
12%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.3 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.05
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.3
X/1
23%
4.1
X/2
9%
10.85
X/X
9%
5.3
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
9%
9.07
2/X
8%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Lille win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
55%
Home Win
59%
-3.8pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.7pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.6pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest The Market 21%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
2.03/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.60
-4% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
448 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
18.9 Crosses 16.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Brest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.60 xG 0.97
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
435 Passes 312
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2025 Brest Brest 3-3 HT 1-2 Lille Lille FR1
10.05.2025 Brest Brest 2-0 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
06.12.2024 Lille Lille 3-1 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
17.03.2024 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
22.10.2023 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
24.02.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-1
AWAY Brest
1.65 xG 0.68
69% Ball Possession 31%
20 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 1
534 Passes 189
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
42 Box Touches 18
31 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lille vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille and Brest shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Lille carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lille had 69% of the ball to Brest's 31%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.65 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lille and 1.33 for Brest.

What was the final score of Lille vs Brest?

Lille 1-1 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lille 55%, draw 22%, Brest 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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