Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Excelsior v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
5-0
HT 5-0
Excelsior
HOL
1-4
HT 1-3
AZ Alkmaar
HOK
2-1
HT 2-0
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Excelsior 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Just as the model leaned, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (62%) came in.
On the day, Excelsior had 45% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 55%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.87 to 2.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AZ Alkmaar's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Excelsior and 2.67 for AZ Alkmaar.
What was the final score of Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 29%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.