Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
75%
1.32
Draw
15%
4.95
Away
10%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.61
Over 2.5
65%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.71
2-3 Goals
40%
2.05
4-5 Goals
28%
2.57
6+ Goals
14%
5.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.54
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
19.05
X/1
25%
4.06
X/2
3%
17.65
X/X
7%
8.43
2/1
8%
20.0
2/2
2%
13.85
2/X
4%
21.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
75%
Home Win
71%
+3.5pp
15%
Draw
17%
-1.6pp
10%
Away Win
12%
-1.9pp
35%
Under 2.5
35%
+0.4pp
65%
Over 2.5
65%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
2.61/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.14
+5% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
417 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
45.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
21.9 Crosses 11.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.05 xG 1.11
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
520 Passes 217
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
46 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2025 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-3 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.02.2025 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-2 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
18.09.2024 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
10.03.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
03.09.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.04.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
4-1
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.28 xG 0.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
523 Passes 395
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
38 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax ran out comfortable winners over Fortuna Sittard 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%) came in.

On the day, Ajax had 55% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 45%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.28 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Ajax and 0.50 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?

Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Ajax 75%, draw 15%, Fortuna Sittard 10%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
14 Feb 2026
18:30 Heracles vs NAC Breda Analysis →
20:45 Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Analysis →
23:00 Groningen vs Utrecht Analysis →