Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ajax v Fortuna Sittard — Team-Based Signals
Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Ajax
HOL
4-0
HT 2-0
Fortuna Sittard
HOL
Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard — Actual Match Statistics
Ajax ran out comfortable winners over Fortuna Sittard 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%) came in.
On the day, Ajax had 55% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 45%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.28 to 0.86.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Ajax and 0.50 for Fortuna Sittard.
What was the final score of Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Ajax 75%, draw 15%, Fortuna Sittard 10%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.