Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.67
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.82
Over 2.5
55%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.7
No
44%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.61
6+ Goals
11%
14.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.19
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
16%
6.13
X/2
16%
5.56
X/X
10%
4.49
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
12%
3.59
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
34%
+7.1pp
22%
Draw
28%
-6.2pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-0.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
51%
-6.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
49%
+6.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.6pp
44%
BTTS No
45%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 42%
+8% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -25%
1.78/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.99
+47% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -35%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
317 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 75%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
22.1 Crosses 19.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
4W-1D-1L
AWAY NAC Breda
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.45 xG 1.16
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
266 Passes 417
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.10.2025 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-4 HT 0-2 Heracles Heracles HOK
20.09.2025 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
31.01.2025 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
02.11.2024 Heracles Heracles 2-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
12.05.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-3 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL2
11.11.2022 Heracles Heracles 5-1 HT 3-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
0-1
AWAY NAC Breda
1.32 xG 1.44
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
278 Passes 258
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heracles vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda edged past Heracles 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (41% / 22% / 37%) promised a tight game; NAC Breda found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Heracles had 53% of the ball to NAC Breda's 47%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.32 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heracles had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Heracles and 0.83 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Heracles vs NAC Breda?

Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heracles win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Heracles 41%, draw 22%, NAC Breda 37%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Heracles) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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