NAC Breda 2-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.86
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.97
Over 2.5
57%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.15
6+ Goals
12%
10.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.15 — our 26% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.44
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
23%
4.52
X/2
5%
8.09
X/X
7%
5.05
2/1
8%
22.35
2/2
10%
6.02
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
50%
+5.1pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.2pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-1.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 28%
-16% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.56/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.66
-23% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.9 Crosses 17.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Heracles
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.67 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 318
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
31.01.2025 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
02.11.2024 Heracles Heracles 2-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
12.05.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-3 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL2
11.11.2022 Heracles Heracles 5-1 HT 3-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
06.04.2019 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
03.11.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
2-1
AWAY Heracles
2.50 xG 1.09
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
431 Passes 232
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 20
32 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda squeezed past Heracles 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had NAC Breda as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, NAC Breda had 63% of the ball to Heracles's 37%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.50 to 1.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold NAC Breda's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heracles led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NAC Breda and 2.17 for Heracles.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Heracles?

NAC Breda 2-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 55%, draw 21%, Heracles 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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