Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 20 Sep 2025

Fortuna Sittard
1-0 HT 1-0
Utrecht
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
49%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.41
2-3 Goals
35%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.23
6+ Goals
13%
11.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.64
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.5
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
15%
6.67
X/2
18%
5.05
X/X
6%
4.75
2/1
5%
31.0
2/2
23%
3.01
2/X
9%
12.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.5 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
31%
-0.3pp
20%
Draw
27%
-6.2pp
49%
Away Win
43%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Sittard v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 46%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.52/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.17
+4% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +30%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
279 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
22.5 Crosses 19.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Utrecht
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.27 xG 1.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
306 Passes 347
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.05.2025 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
22.12.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 2-5 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
11.02.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 4-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
28.10.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
03.03.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-2 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
02.09.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-4 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-0
AWAY Utrecht
1.22 xG 0.96
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 11
266 Passes 508
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 32
4 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard squeezed past Utrecht 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Utrecht at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 35% of the ball to Utrecht's 65%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.22 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.83 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated an Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 30%, draw 20%, Utrecht 49%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Utrecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
20 Sep 2025
17:30 Volendam vs Excelsior Analysis →
19:45 Groningen vs Telstar Analysis →
22:00 NAC Breda vs Heracles Analysis →