NAC Breda 1-4 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 29 Oct 2025

📅29/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.66
No
40%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
60%
-7.6pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.8pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+8.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.6pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 22%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.04/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
-62% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
58.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
32.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Heracles
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.97 xG 1.45
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
373 Passes 305
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.09.2025 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
31.01.2025 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
02.11.2024 Heracles Heracles 2-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
12.05.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-3 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL2
11.11.2022 Heracles Heracles 5-1 HT 3-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
06.04.2019 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-4
AWAY Heracles
1.49 xG 1.83
73% Ball Possession 27%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 0
541 Passes 173
89% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 10
31 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles ran out comfortable winners over NAC Breda 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, NAC Breda had 73% of the ball to Heracles's 27%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.49 to 1.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heracles led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NAC Breda and 2.17 for Heracles.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Heracles?

NAC Breda 1-4 Heracles in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 29/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 52%, draw 21%, Heracles 28%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NAC Breda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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