Deportivo Maldonado 2-0 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.1pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -7%
1.14/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.18
-4% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
252 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Maldonado
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Progreso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.10.2024 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 2-2 HT 2-0 Progreso Progreso URU
21.07.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
31.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 3-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
21.10.2021 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
24.06.2021 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
02.03.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Maldonado
2-0
AWAY Progreso
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Maldonado got the better of Progreso 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Deportivo Maldonado made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Deportivo Maldonado had 57% of the ball to Progreso's 43%, shots finished 17-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Progreso led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.50 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?

Deportivo Maldonado 2-0 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Maldonado win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Maldonado 38%, draw 25%, Progreso 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Maldonado), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Maldonado) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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14 Feb 2026
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