HNK Gorica 0-3 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.45
6+ Goals
7%
24.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.5pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.05/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.13
+27% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
15.9 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.14 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 Passes 346
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.03.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 3-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
13.12.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
30.09.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.05.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 4-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.02.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
10.11.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
0-3
AWAY Slaven Belupo
0.24 xG 0.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
4 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
255 Passes 227
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
4 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo ran out comfortable winners over HNK Gorica 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Slaven Belupo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 52% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 48%, shots finished 4-9, expected goals 0.24 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Slaven Belupo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.67 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

HNK Gorica 0-3 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 36%, draw 31%, Slaven Belupo 32%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (HNK Gorica), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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