Kitara 1-1 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 14 Mar 2025

Kitara
1-1 HT 0-0
Mbarara City
📅14/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Uganda - Premier League – 2024/2025

Kitara vs Mbarara City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.33
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
13%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.51
No
56%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
4%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.4pp
26%
Draw
19%
+7.3pp
13%
Away Win
11%
+2.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
36%
+8.5pp
56%
BTTS No
64%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kitara v Mbarara City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kitara EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
3.91/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.51
+110% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
462 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Kitara vs Mbarara City Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kitara
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
18.10.2024 Mbarara City Mbarara City 1-1 HT 0-0 Kitara Kitara UGA
30.04.2024 Kitara Kitara 1-1 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
20.12.2023 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 Kitara Kitara UGA
POST-MATCH Kitara vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kitara and Mbarara City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Kitara carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kitara and 0.67 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of Kitara vs Mbarara City?

Kitara 1-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kitara vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kitara win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Kitara 61%, draw 26%, Mbarara City 13%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kitara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kitara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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