Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Independiente Del Valle v Aucas — Team-Based Signals
Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Independiente Del Valle
EKV1
2-0
HT 1-0
Aucas
EKV1
Independiente Del Valle 2-2 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente Del Valle and Aucas shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Independiente Del Valle at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 54% of the ball to Aucas's 46%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.63 to 1.22.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.83 for Aucas.
What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas?
Independiente Del Valle 2-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas?
Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 57%, draw 25%, Aucas 18%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.