Independiente Del Valle 2-2 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
18%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
56%
+1.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
18%
Away Win
19%
-1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -4%
1.38/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.38
+1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 73%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
18.6 Crosses 15.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aucas
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.49 xG 0.76
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
366 Passes 227
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.07.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
29.03.2025 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 1-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
01.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 0-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.03.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.11.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
03.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2-2
AWAY Aucas
1.63 xG 1.22
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
375 Passes 308
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle and Aucas shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Independiente Del Valle at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 54% of the ball to Aucas's 46%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.63 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.83 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas?

Independiente Del Valle 2-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 57%, draw 25%, Aucas 18%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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