Penybont 1-2 The New Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
10%
5.91
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
64%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.95
No
44%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.75
2-3 Goals
46%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
2.95
6+ Goals
9%
9.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
3%
X/2
25%
X/X
11%
2/1
3%
2/2
29%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
10%
Home Win
14%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
19%
+7.3pp
63%
Away Win
67%
-3.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.9pp
44%
BTTS No
53%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints EU Bookmakers 71%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.40/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.67/0.69
-57% / +93% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
230 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
1W-0D-5L
AWAY The New Saints
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.02.2026 The New Saints The New Saints 6-0 HT 2-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
11.10.2025 The New Saints The New Saints 6-2 HT 3-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
16.08.2025 Penybont Penybont 0-2 HT 0-1 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
29.03.2025 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 0-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
08.02.2025 The New Saints The New Saints 4-0 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
23.11.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 3-2 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
1-2
AWAY The New Saints
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Penybont vs The New Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The New Saints nicked a narrow win over Penybont 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had The New Saints as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Penybont had 34% of the ball to The New Saints's 66%, shots finished 8-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Penybont and 3.50 for The New Saints.

What was the final score of Penybont vs The New Saints?

Penybont 1-2 The New Saints in the Wales - Premier League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs The New Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated an The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Penybont 10%, draw 26%, The New Saints 63%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The New Saints), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (The New Saints) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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