PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities
PSV Eindhoven v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals
PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
PSV Eindhoven 2-3 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics
NEC Nijmegen found just enough to beat PSV Eindhoven 3-2 on the road. Half-time: 1-2. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had PSV Eindhoven at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (80%), both teams to score (67%) landed.
On the day, possession split 70% to 30% in PSV Eindhoven's favour, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.52 to 2.13.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.83 a game for PSV Eindhoven against 2.00 for NEC Nijmegen.
PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen Result & Final Score
PSV Eindhoven 2 - 3 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 68%, draw 16%, NEC Nijmegen 16%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) went the other way.