Celta Vigo II 4-1 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.45
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
-0.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-0.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo II EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.87/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.66
+25% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +86%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo II
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lugo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.01.2024 Lugo Lugo 0-1 HT 0-1 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II İS3
06.08.2017 Lugo Lugo 1-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo II
4-1
AWAY Lugo
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo II vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo II ran out comfortable winners over Lugo 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Celta Vigo II as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celta Vigo II had 58% of the ball to Lugo's 42%, shots finished 16-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Celta Vigo II and 0.50 for Lugo.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo II vs Lugo?

Celta Vigo II 4-1 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo II vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo II win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo II 51%, draw 27%, Lugo 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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