Guanacasteca 1-1 Alajuelense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Costa Rica - Premier League, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
50%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.71
Over
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2-3
40%
4-5
18%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
23%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.5pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.5pp
50%
Away Win
63%
-12.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.9pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guanacasteca EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Alajuelense EU Bookmakers 67%
+16% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.41/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.80
+46% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +21%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
228 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guanacasteca
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Alajuelense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.02.2025 Alajuelense Alajuelense 1-0 HT 0-0 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
01.12.2024 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 1-0 HT 0-0 Alajuelense Alajuelense KOSTA
08.09.2024 Alajuelense Alajuelense 4-0 HT 3-0 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
13.05.2024 Alajuelense Alajuelense 5-0 HT 2-0 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
11.03.2024 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 3-0 HT 1-0 Alajuelense Alajuelense KOSTA
26.11.2023 Alajuelense Alajuelense 3-4 HT 0-3 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guanacasteca
1-1
AWAY Alajuelense
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guanacasteca vs Alajuelense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guanacasteca and Alajuelense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Alajuelense at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Guanacasteca had 43% of the ball to Alajuelense's 57%, shots finished 8-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Guanacasteca and 2.17 for Alajuelense.

What was the final score of Guanacasteca vs Alajuelense?

Guanacasteca 1-1 Alajuelense in the Costa Rica - Premier League on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guanacasteca vs Alajuelense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alajuelense win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Guanacasteca 21%, draw 29%, Alajuelense 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alajuelense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alajuelense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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