Tusker 1-0 Gor Mahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 14 Apr 2026

📅14/04/2026 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.69
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.51
Over 2.5
30%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
24%
+0.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.1pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.6pp
70%
Under 2.5
62%
+7.8pp
30%
Over 2.5
38%
-7.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.8pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tusker EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 51%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
0.89/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.53
+5% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +73%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
248 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tusker
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Gor Mahia
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.11.2025 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
16.02.2025 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
19.01.2025 Tusker Tusker 2-1 HT 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN
20.01.2024 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
09.04.2022 Tusker Tusker 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tusker
1-0
AWAY Gor Mahia
45% Ball Possession 55%
2 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tusker vs Gor Mahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tusker nicked a narrow win over Gor Mahia 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Gor Mahia at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tusker had 45% of the ball to Gor Mahia's 55%, shots finished 2-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Gor Mahia led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Tusker and 0.60 for Gor Mahia.

What was the final score of Tusker vs Gor Mahia?

Tusker 1-0 Gor Mahia in the Kenya - Premier League on 14/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tusker vs Gor Mahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Tusker 24%, draw 30%, Gor Mahia 46%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gor Mahia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gor Mahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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