Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 May 2025

📅14/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
28%
2.83
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.45
Over 2.5
32%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.19
No
63%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
14%
6.0
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.27
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
15%
4.71
X/2
10%
6.97
X/X
15%
3.38
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
15%
5.99
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
32%
-4.2pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.9pp
68%
Under 2.5
65%
+2.6pp
32%
Over 2.5
35%
-2.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.3pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.24/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.34
-22% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
22.7 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Valencia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.40 xG 1.12
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
196 Passes 340
67% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.12.2024 Valencia Valencia 2-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
24.07.2024 Valencia Valencia 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves HAZ
05.05.2024 Valencia Valencia 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
02.09.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
29.07.2023 Valencia Valencia 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves HAZ
13.02.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1-0
AWAY Valencia
1.81 xG 0.85
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
246 Passes 393
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves edged past Valencia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Deportivo Alaves as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 42% of the ball to Valencia's 58%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.81 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Alaves had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 0.83 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia?

Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 42%, draw 28%, Valencia 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Alaves), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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