Valencia 0-1 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 24 Jul 2024

📅24/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.87
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 29% vs market 20.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.1
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.05
X/2
10%
6.27
X/X
12%
5.08
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
17%
4.2
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 36%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.37/0.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.40
-12% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.13 xG 1.09
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
324 Passes 229
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Valencia Valencia 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
02.09.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
29.07.2023 Valencia Valencia 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves HAZ
13.02.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
27.08.2021 Valencia Valencia 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
24.04.2021 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves edged past Valencia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Valencia at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Alaves led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Valencia and 0.83 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves?

Valencia 0-1 Deportivo Alaves in the Friendlies on 24/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Valencia 41%, draw 27%, Deportivo Alaves 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Valencia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valencia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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